Move over, restrictive diets, there’s a hot new sheriff in town that’s got folks all aflutter. A new class of weight-loss medications – affectionately known as GLP-1 drugs – has even been dubbed by Science as “the Breakthrough of the Year” for 2023.
GLP-1 meds like Ozempic and Wegovy have been all the rage in the media for a while now for their weight-loss benefits. In fact, conversations in the food media about weight-loss drugs have skyrocketed in the past year.
Mentions of weight-loss drugs in the context of food and drink have gone up significantly in the last year
Source: Spoonshot Trend Watch
These products have been successful enough that food companies are more than a little worried about the medications’ impact on their sales. A study by Numerator of 100,000 US respondents released in December found that people on GLP-1 drugs were buying fewer groceries than before and less than those not on the medications.
- Overall buy rates at grocery stores in the three months to December 2023 for those not on the drugs fell by 3.9% compared to a year ago. For those on the GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, buy rates declined by 11%.
- For ice cream, buy rates grew by 3.9% among non-users versus a 9% decline among those on the medication.
- For snacks, the figures were a drop of 2.1% versus a drop of 8.8%.
- On a positive note, some categories did better among those who were on the meds, like frozen foods.
It’s understandable how these numbers could be causing some sleepless nights. And there have been some radical predictions that these drugs will completely change the shape of the food industry, but it’s just too early to gauge any long-term impact. And there are a lot more complex issues to consider with these medications than the rather simplistic view that people will start buying less food, causing the collapse of the industry (okay, that’s a slight exaggeration).
Gamechangers or just another player?
So, what’s the big deal here? Weight-loss pills have been around for nearly a century and have evolved from unmitigated disaster (straight-up narcotics) to some modest weight-loss benefits (5%-7%, when paired with exercise and a healthy diet).
What makes this new class of drugs – called glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists – different is that have shown remarkable results, with some users registering a 10%-20% drop in body weight.
The big names, Ozempic and Wegovy, contain the active ingredient semaglutide but at different doses. We’re not getting into their inner workings, except to say they send a message to trick the brain into thinking you’re full and slow down the emptying of the stomach.
In 2023, over 4 million prescriptions for semaglutide were written in the US and KFF’s Health Tracking Poll found that 45% of adults were at least somewhat interested in taking a prescription weight-loss drug.
But there is one very important thing to note: Ozempic is NOT APPROVED by the FDA for weight loss. It is approved to treat diabetes with weight loss as a side effect for some. Though some enterprising folks have been dosing on off-label Ozempic for that sweet, sweet weight-loss high…
What the FDA approved for weight loss in 2021 is Wegovy which has a significantly higher dose of semaglutide than Ozempic (2.4 mg vs 0.5/1/2 mg, respectively). Also best when paired with a calorie deficit diet and exercise.
In the wake of these medications, a bunch of other weight-loss drugs have hit the market or are in the pipeline. And we’re talking about obesity again.
We need to talk about obesity
The body positivity movement, which took root a few years ago, is here to stay and has generally been a force for good, but this silver cloud has also come with a bit of a dark lining. It has had an adverse impact on conversations about obesity, which has reached dangerously high levels around the globe.
Spoonshot’s analysis of articles in the media found that conversations on obesity declined in tandem with the growth in conversations on body positivity (the two topics had a correlation of -0.70).
Interest in body positivity across consumer and industry media together grew by 285% between 2016 and 2023, but saw a 3% dip in 2022-23.
Conversations on obesity in the media fell by 40% between 2015 and 2021, but picked up again by over 12% during 2022-23.
Source: Spoonshot Trendwatch
While conversations about obesity may have declined, obesity rates most certainly haven’t. Data from the World Health Organization shows that globally adult obesity doubled and child obesity quadrupled between 1990 and 2022. In 2022, 43% of adults (2.5 billion) over the age of 18 years were overweight and 16% were affected by obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²). Among children, 37 million under the age of 5 and 390 million in the 5-19 age group were estimated to be living with obesity. In the US, 42% of adults (over 18 years) and 21.5% of children (10-19 years) were obese as of 2022.
These used to be thought of as concerns for rich countries, but rates of overweight and obesity are rising rapidly in middle- and low-income countries as well. Obesity increases the risk of non-communicable diseases like type 2 diabetes, stroke, coronary heart disease, and cancer among adults and children as they grow up.
Blame game
There’s plenty of blame to go around for the rise in obesity, but one factor that gets apportioned a hefty share is food – processed food in particular. And often not without reason.
The BMJ recently published the results of a meta-analysis looking into the impacts of exposure to ultra-processed foods. This study found that higher consumption of ultra-processed foods could be linked to a higher risk of developing 32 adverse health outcomes, “spanning mortality, cancer, and mental, respiratory, cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, and metabolic health outcomes.”
Higher ultra-processed food intake was associated with a 40-66% increased risk of heart disease-related death, obesity, type 2 diabetes, and sleep problems, as well as a 22% greater risk of depression. Obesity is of particular concern here as it increases the risk of developing a laundry list of lifestyle diseases including heart disease and diabetes.
Our dependence on processed food is pretty high – research indicates that processed foods account for 60%-90% of the standard American diet today. We even rely on them to manage our health conditions, specifically looking for claims that best suit our needs; weight loss is one of the leading health claims.
Leading health claims across packaged foods, US
Source: Spoonshot Platform
Shifting perspectives
In light of the introduction of these drugs and the research on the impacts of ultraprocessed foods, what we expect to see is not necessarily a crazy decline in food sales, but a shift in how the food industry approaches product development and messaging. This is already happening in some cases and laying the groundwork for how others will respond.
We will see more reformulations to reduce salt and sugar content in foods as well as increase nutrient-dense ingredients, linked to greater regulatory oversight (like the HFSS regulations in the UK).
There will also be more foods looking to make qualified health claims, which “are supported by scientific evidence, but do not meet the more rigorous ‘significant scientific agreement’ standard required for an authorized health claim.” Thus far, only 10 foods have been allowed to be sold with such claims.
In March 2024, yogurt received its first-ever qualified health claim from the US FDA, the result of a petition submitted by Danone North America in 2018. Any yogurt can now make the limited claim that “eating yogurt regularly, at least 2 cups (3 servings) per week” may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes, as long as the wording is exactly as specified by the FDA.
One factor that should assuage food brands a bit is that the GLP-1 drugs are still pretty expensive – upwards of US$900 per 0.5 ml dose and not always covered by insurance. In addition, studies have shown that stopping semaglutide can lead to regaining lost weight since it is intended to be a long-term treatment.
So the best bet for people who are not rich celebrities and want to manage their weight is to focus more on improving their lifestyles and food manufacturers can help by improving the healthfulness of their products.
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